Calling the Election
A summer of threats, cries and laments, the politicians have returned to Ottawa promising more of the same. Let the games begin.
There will be an election this autumn only because the myopic political class wants one. Like the outbreak of the First World War, the principals have set in train events that they cannot control, with consequences they cannot foresee.
Those who confidently predict that things will stay the same underestimate the fatigue of the electorate. They ignore the impact of a fourth election in five years, the alienation that it will foster and the opportunity it will create for the smartest party.
Here are four ways the campaign of 2009 could play out:
A Conservative minority.
The government, trying to gain an upper hand, engineers its own defeat in Parliament at the earliest opportunity. It immediately blames the Liberals. It makes much of the election itself, an argument that would usually cut no ice. After all, as historians note, the country has had two elections in two years (1925, 1926; 1957, 1958; 1962, 1963; 1979, 1980), two elections in three years (1972, 1974) and three elections in four years (1962, 1963, 1965).
But four in five years? Never! The Conservatives argue that the election costs $300 million and will endanger the fragile economic recovery.
But as the campaign goes on, this argument wanes. Canadians don’t like an election but that isn’t enough to make them vote Conservative any more than they did in 2008. The Conservatives lose half their 10 seats in Quebec, some in B.C., and make modest gains in Ontario.
The Conservatives paint Michael Ignatieff as aloof, elitist and opportunistic. He offers few new ideas and attracts few star candidates. His organization is shallow and his staff is inexperienced. There are gaffes and missteps aplenty, but the party is saved by its brand.
Voter turnout falls to a new low, especially among young Canadians, but hard-core Conservatives, identified by the party’s sophisticated tracking system, turn out. Organization makes the difference for the Conservatives.
A Liberal minority.
The Liberals succeed in explaining why they are different from the Conservatives and why this seemingly unnecessary election is pivotal to the country’s future. In his first campaign as leader, Michael Ignatieff performs beyond expectations. He is disciplined, focused and charming. He points out that he has sat in the House longer than Pierre Trudeau or Brian Mulroney had when they became prime minister, and presents his international experience as an asset. Amid withering attack ads, his intelligence shines, especially in the debates.
The Liberals win 15 more seats in Quebec and retake ridings in Ontario. The combination of Conservative losses in suburban Toronto and Liberal gains outside Montreal make the difference; the country has returned to its “natural governing party.”
A Conservative majority.
The Conservatives run a superb campaign. Stephen Harper, running for the fourth time as leader, persuades Canadians that he isn’t so scary after all. He argues that the country cannot afford minority government. He says it has made Canada “dysfunctional.” He repeats his call that the opposition and their “little coalition” must “be taught a lesson.”
Meanwhile, Ignatieff stumbles. Like Edward Kennedy running for president in 1980, Ignatieff cannot articulate why he wants the top job. His stamina wanes, his nerves fray, his impatience shows.
Canadians have had enough. Persuaded that the Conservatives are better economic managers, cheered by their tax cuts, unafraid of “a secret agenda,” they vote blue, especially in Ontario.
Curiously, though, the Conservatives lose all but one of their seats in Quebec. Here they make history: never has a party won a majority without a substantial showing in Quebec — or with as little share of the popular vote. The election leaves a fragmented Canada.
For Harper, after nearly losing power last December to the coalition, he has redeemed himself. His long march to a majority is complete; he is the master strategist, after all.
A Liberal majority.
The Liberals differentiate themselves from the Conservatives. They present a compelling vision of a country of ambition, at home and abroad. They unveil plans for inspiring national projects, such as high-speed rail.
Atlantic Canada votes massively for the Liberals. The NDP vote collapses in Ontario and British Columbia, going Liberal. But the big news is Quebec, where Québécois warm to the cerebral, cosmopolitan Ignatieff. Leaving the Bloc Québécois and its humourless leader, they give the Liberals 20 more seats.
Ignatieff erases doubts about his aptitude and appetite for politics. His is the most improbable ascent in Canadian political history. He’s no longer just visiting; he’s here to stay, as prime minister of Canada.
Andrew Cohen is president of The Historica-Dominion Institute. E-mail: andrewzcohen@yahoo.ca
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